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Probability of profit vs. break-even
Understand probability of profit and break-even, the decision it supports, and the pricing and execution risks to check before acting
Prepared by Mark · Primary sources below
Direct answer
Break-even is a price condition derived from the position's payoff and net premium for a specified date, usually expiration. Probability of profit is a model estimate of how often a defined profit condition could be met under chosen distribution and volatility assumptions; the two measures answer different questions. A position can show a high estimated probability of a small profit while carrying a larger but less frequent loss, or have an attractive break-even with poor liquidity.
Probability of profit and break-even: the core structure
Break-even is a price condition derived from the position's payoff and net premium for a specified date, usually expiration. Probability of profit is a model estimate of how often a defined profit condition could be met under chosen distribution and volatility assumptions; the two measures answer different questions.
Probability of profit and break-even: the variables to compare
A position can show a high estimated probability of a small profit while carrying a larger but less frequent loss, or have an attractive break-even with poor liquidity. Compare the full payoff range, expected timing, premium, volatility input, fees, and whether the probability refers to expiration or an earlier exit.
Probability of profit and break-even: the risk that remains
Neither metric promises a profitable trade, and delta is only sometimes used as a rough proxy for expiring in the money. Record the model assumptions and quote time, stress stock and IV paths, and size the position from maximum acceptable loss rather than from probability alone.
Common questions
What does probability of profit and break-even help explain?
Break-even is a price condition derived from the position's payoff and net premium for a specified date, usually expiration. Probability of profit is a model estimate of how often a defined profit condition could be met under chosen distribution and volatility assumptions; the two measures answer different questions.
What should I check before using probability of profit and break-even?
A position can show a high estimated probability of a small profit while carrying a larger but less frequent loss, or have an attractive break-even with poor liquidity. Compare the full payoff range, expected timing, premium, volatility input, fees, and whether the probability refers to expiration or an earlier exit. Neither metric promises a profitable trade, and delta is only sometimes used as a rough proxy for expiring in the money. Record the model assumptions and quote time, stress stock and IV paths, and size the position from maximum acceptable loss rather than from probability alone.
Sources and further reading
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