Methodology
Assumptions stay attached to every answer. A precise-looking number is not treated as certainty
How Mark calculates Path
Mark works backward from your target premium and checkpoint. It estimates the underlying price that produces a similar theoretical option value under a named volatility assumption
Pricing model
The MVP uses an American-style binomial estimate for standard long calls and puts, including an early-exercise check at each step. It assumes a 100 multiplier, stated volatility, a dated risk-free rate, and a stated dividend yield
Reality
Reality compares the absolute required move with the market-implied move over the nearest useful horizon. It is a relative label, not a probability or directional forecast
Hinge
Hinge applies small changes to volatility, time, and liquidity conditions. It names the variable that changes the required condition most inside that limited set
Quote quality
Bid, Ask, Mark, model estimates, user-entered values, and Demo data remain distinct. Stale or unavailable data is never relabeled as current
Known limits
Actual premiums may differ because of spreads, volume, order flow, early exercise, dividends, events, and volatility surface effects. Adjusted contracts and 0DTE are not supported